CONFLICT FORECAST
RISK RADAR
Every country's armed-conflict probability over the next 12 months, forecast by ViEWS. The sparkline is the month-by-month trajectory; the arrow is the near-term (1–3 mo) vs ~1-year change. A forecast, not observed conflict.
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Every country by near-term conflict risk (189)
ViEWS armed-conflict probability, next 1-3 months. A forecast, not observed conflict.
- 1
Afghanistan100% - 2
Burkina Faso100% - 3
Ethiopia100% - 4
Iran100% - 5
Israel100% - 6
Myanmar100% - 7
Nigeria100% - 8
Pakistan100% - 9
Sudan100% - 10
Somalia100% - 11
Ukraine100% - 12
Yemen100% - 13
Mali100% - 14
Syria100% - 15
DR Congo100% - 16
Niger99% - 17
Lebanon99% - 18
India95% - 19
Colombia90% - 20
Cameroon88% - 21
Haiti80% - 22
Russia79% - 23
South Sudan41% - 24
Iraq27% - 25
Philippines7% - 26
Central African Republic1% - 27
Sri Lanka0% - 28
Venezuela0% - 29
Benin0% - 30
Indonesia0% - 31
Mozambique0% - 32
Angola0% - 33
Albania0% - 34
United Arab Emirates0% - 35
Argentina0% - 36
Armenia0% - 37
Antigua and Barbuda0% - 38
Australia0% - 39
Austria0% - 40
Azerbaijan0% - 41
Burundi0% - 42
Belgium0% - 43
Bangladesh0% - 44
Bulgaria0% - 45
Bahrain0% - 46
Bahamas0% - 47
Bosnia and Herzegovina0% - 48
Belarus0% - 49
Belize0% - 50
Bolivia0% - 51
Brazil0% - 52
Barbados0% - 53
Brunei Darussalam0% - 54
Bhutan0% - 55
Botswana0% - 56
Canada0% - 57
Switzerland0% - 58
Chile0% - 59
China0% - 60
Côte d'Ivoire0% - 61
Congo Republic0% - 62
Comoros0% - 63
Cabo Verde0% - 64
Costa Rica0% - 65
Cuba0% - 66
Cyprus0% - 67
Czechia0% - 68
Germany0% - 69
Djibouti0% - 70
Dominica0% - 71
Denmark0% - 72
Dominican Republic0% - 73
Algeria0% - 74
Ecuador0% - 75
Egypt0% - 76
Eritrea0% - 77
Spain0% - 78
Estonia0% - 79
Finland0% - 80
Fiji0% - 81
France0% - 82
Micronesia, Fed. Sts.0% - 83
Gabon0% - 84
United Kingdom0% - 85
Georgia0% - 86
Ghana0% - 87
Guinea0% - 88
Gambia0% - 89
Guinea-Bissau0% - 90
Equatorial Guinea0% - 91
Greece0% - 92
Grenada0% - 93
Guatemala0% - 94
Guyana0% - 95
Honduras0% - 96
Croatia0% - 97
Hungary0% - 98
Ireland0% - 99
Iceland0% - 100
Italy0% - 101
Jamaica0% - 102
Jordan0% - 103
Japan0% - 104
Kazakhstan0% - 105
Kenya0% - 106
Kyrgyzstan0% - 107
Cambodia0% - 108
St. Kitts and Nevis0% - 109
South Korea0% - 110
Kuwait0% - 111
Laos0% - 112
Liberia0% - 113
Libya0% - 114
St. Lucia0% - 115
Lesotho0% - 116
Lithuania0% - 117
Luxembourg0% - 118
Latvia0% - 119
Morocco0% - 120
Moldova0% - 121
Madagascar0% - 122
Maldives0% - 123
Mexico0% - 124
Marshall Islands0% - 125
North Macedonia0% - 126
Malta0% - 127
Montenegro0% - 128
Mongolia0% - 129
Mauritania0% - 130
Mauritius0% - 131
Malawi0% - 132
Malaysia0% - 133
Namibia0% - 134
Nicaragua0% - 135
Netherlands0% - 136
Norway0% - 137
Nepal0% - 138
Nauru0% - 139
New Zealand0% - 140
Oman0% - 141
Panama0% - 142
Peru0% - 143
Palau0% - 144
Papua New Guinea0% - 145
Poland0% - 146
North Korea0% - 147
Portugal0% - 148
Paraguay0% - 149
Qatar0% - 150
Romania0% - 151
Rwanda0% - 152
Saudi Arabia0% - 153
Senegal0% - 154
Singapore0% - 155
Solomon Islands0% - 156
Sierra Leone0% - 157
El Salvador0% - 158
Serbia0% - 159
Sao Tome and Principe0% - 160
Suriname0% - 161
Slovakia0% - 162
Slovenia0% - 163
Sweden0% - 164
Eswatini0% - 165
Seychelles0% - 166
Chad0% - 167
Togo0% - 168
Thailand0% - 169
Tajikistan0% - 170
Turkmenistan0% - 171
Timor-Leste0% - 172
Tonga0% - 173
Trinidad and Tobago0% - 174
Tunisia0% - 175
Türkiye0% - 176
Tuvalu0% - 177
Taiwan0% - 178
Tanzania0% - 179
Uganda0% - 180
Uruguay0% - 181
United States0% - 182
Uzbekistan0% - 183
St. Vincent and the Grenadines0% - 184
Vietnam0% - 185
Vanuatu0% - 186
Samoa0% - 187
South Africa0% - 188
Zambia0% - 189
Zimbabwe0%