Africa / CAF

Central African Republic

Central African Republic ranks #195 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.1/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 47.6/100 (#31 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Central African Republic: Country Intelligence Brief

The Central African Republic's economy was valued at $2.75 billion in 2024, according to World Bank WDI figures, with GDP per capita at $516.16 the same year against a population of 5,330,690. Foreign reserves stood at $489.29 million in 2024, per the same World Bank WDI series, and the IMF World Economic Outlook puts government debt at 64.0% of GDP in 2026 — the highest debt-to-GDP figure in this bundle's fiscal set.

Military capacity

SIPRI's Milex data put military expenditure at $74.19 million in 2025, equivalent to 2.332% of GDP on SIPRI's own GDP series for that year rather than the World Bank GDP figure cited above. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities dataset recorded 9,000 active-duty personnel in 2022 and assigned the Central African Republic a Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) score of 0.00025141859 for the same year. Both the personnel figure and the CINC score date to the 2022 COW release and are not refreshed elsewhere in this bundle.

Governance

V-Dem v15's 2025 indicators score the electoral democracy index at 0.293 and the liberal democracy index at 0.102, with the liberal democracy figure running well below the electoral democracy figure. The same release puts state capacity at 0.118, the lowest of the three governance measures supplied. The bundle carries no narrative detail behind these scores beyond the figures themselves, and no earlier V-Dem vintage is included for comparison.

Energy

Our World in Data's energy series records primary energy supply of 0.0052 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation of 0.14 terawatt-hours in 2023. Oil and gas production are both listed at 0.0 terawatt-hours, dated to 2016 for both series.

Data gaps

Oil and gas production figures are a decade old (2016) against a 2023–2025 vintage for the rest of the bundle, and both read zero; that reading should not be treated as current. Governance scores are single-year (2025) with no prior series to show direction of travel. The bundle contains no figures on trade balance, external debt composition, or security-sector structure beyond personnel strength and CINC.

Sources: World Bank WDI; IMF World Economic Outlook; SIPRI Milex; Correlates of War National Material Capabilities; V-Dem v15; Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
85/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Active armed violence
56/100 · weight 30%
UCDP GED
Governance fragility
88/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
2/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (24)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (8)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
2
Ports
0
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
0
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2023): 1 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

25% of imports from Russia — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 674.2K refugees originated · 427.5K IDPs · 55.3K hosted

Compare Central African Republic with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.