Guatemala

Guatemala: Moderate Defense Spending Alongside Stronger Governance Scores

Guatemala's gross domestic product reached $113.2 billion in 2024, per World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI), with per-capita output of $6,150.03 across a population of roughly 18.4 million the same year. Government debt was 27.6% of GDP in 2026, per IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) data, and foreign exchange reserves stood at $30.93 billion in 2025, per IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS).

Military spending totaled $632.9 million in 2025, according to SIPRI's Military Expenditure Database, equal to 0.523% of GDP on SIPRI's own GDP series for that year — a ratio that should not be recalculated against the World Bank GDP figure cited above, since the two series are independent. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (COW NMC) dataset counts 18,000 active personnel as of 2022 and assigns Guatemala a Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) score of 0.00093013851 for that year.

V-Dem's 2025 data show an electoral democracy index of 0.637 and a liberal democracy index of 0.523, alongside a state capacity score of 0.695. On V-Dem's 0-to-1 scale, these figures sit in the middle range, reflecting a political system that holds contested elections and maintains functioning state institutions while falling short of the top of either index.

Guatemala's CINC score of 0.00093013851 is a composite built from several components of national material power tracked by COW NMC, including population, military personnel and spending, and industrial output, rather than any single input in isolation.

Energy figures from Our World in Data put primary energy use at 0.3269 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation at 15.79 terawatt-hours in 2024.

Data gaps

Oil production (5.731 terawatt-hours) and gas production (zero) are both dated 2016 in Our World in Data's series, now nearly a decade old, and should not be read as current. The SIPRI milex/GDP ratio above is computed on SIPRI's own GDP accounting and must not be divided against the World Bank GDP figure used elsewhere in this briefing.

Sources: World Bank World Development Indicators; IMF World Economic Outlook; IMF International Financial Statistics; SIPRI Military Expenditure Database; Correlates of War National Material Capabilities; V-Dem v15; Our World in Data (Energy).