Africa / TUN

Tunisia

Tunisia ranks #83 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.8/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 26.6/100 (#95 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Tunisia: Country Intelligence Briefing

Tunisia's fact bundle shows a lower-middle-income North African economy carrying the highest government-debt ratio in this briefing series so far, moderate defense spending, and a governance profile V-Dem v15 scores below the midpoint on its democracy measures.

Economy and Fiscal Position

GDP was $51.3 billion in 2024, with GDP per capita of $4,181.14 the same year, both per World Bank WDI. Population was 12,277,109 in 2024, per World Bank WDI. Government debt stood at 84.9 percent of GDP in 2026, per IMF WEO, and reserves were $9.3 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI.

Defense Posture

Military expenditure was $1.48 billion in 2025, per SIPRI Milex, equivalent to 2.495 percent of GDP under SIPRI's own GDP series for 2025 — a ratio that should not be checked against the separately sourced World Bank GDP figure above. Active personnel stood at 36,000 in 2022, per COW NMC, with a CINC score of 0.0010024091 the same year, also per COW NMC.

Governance

V-Dem v15 scores Tunisia's electoral democracy at 0.395 and liberal democracy at 0.265 for 2025, while rating its state capacity considerably higher at 0.596 the same year.

Energy

Primary energy consumption was 0.4345 exajoules in 2023, and electricity generation was 22.31 terawatt-hours in 2025, both per Our World in Data (Energy). Oil production was 17.282 terawatt-hours in 2024, per Our World in Data (Energy), a current figure. Gas production, by contrast, is recorded at 15.075 terawatt-hours dated to 2016, per Our World in Data (Energy) — nearly a decade stale and should not be read as a current figure alongside the 2024 oil number.

Data Gaps

The gas production figure is nine years out of date relative to the oil figure from the same dataset and should be flagged as historical rather than current. The active-personnel and CINC figures are from 2022. The milex-to-GDP ratio uses SIPRI's own 2025 GDP denominator, distinct from the World Bank's 2024 GDP figure cited above, and the two should not be combined.

Sources: World Bank WDI; IMF WEO; SIPRI Milex; COW NMC; V-Dem v15; Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
58/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
40/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (19)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (11)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
12
Ports
16
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
5
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 3 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

50% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 3.7K refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 2.4K hosted

Compare Tunisia with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.