Asia / AZE

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan ranks #70 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (1.1/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 43.2/100 (#34 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Azerbaijan: Heavy Defense Spending, Weak Governance Scores

Azerbaijan's GDP stood at $74.32 billion in 2024, per the World Bank's World Development Indicators, with GDP per capita of $7,284 the same year and a population of 10.2 million. Government debt is low, at 20.0 percent of GDP for 2026 per the IMF's World Economic Outlook, and reserves — drawn from the World Bank's own WDI series rather than IMF data — stood at $12.70 billion in 2024.

Defense spending is heavy relative to the size of the economy. SIPRI's 2025 military expenditure data puts outlay at roughly $4.94 billion, or 6.466 percent of GDP on SIPRI's own GDP series — one of the higher ratios in this dataset. That figure should not be checked against the World Bank's $74.32 billion GDP estimate above, since SIPRI calculates its GDP denominator independently. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (NMC) dataset lists 64,000 active personnel as of 2022 and a composite index of national capability (CINC) of 0.0014 for that year.

Governance indicators are weak. V-Dem's 2025 data (v15) scores Azerbaijan at 0.171 on electoral democracy, 0.053 on liberal democracy, and 0.053 on state capacity — among the lowest state-capacity readings in this dataset.

Energy figures are current and substantial. Our World in Data's energy series lists primary energy consumption of 0.749 exajoules in 2024 and electricity generation of 28.09 terawatt-hours in 2025. Oil production stood at 339.2 terawatt-hours and gas production at 377.6 terawatt-hours, both for 2024 — current figures, not the decade-old snapshots seen elsewhere in this country set.

Data gaps

All figures in this bundle are drawn from 2022 or later, so no major staleness flag applies here — a contrast with several neighboring entries in this set where energy production data stops at 2016. No arms-trade, nuclear, or alliance-commitment data appears in this bundle. The SIPRI milex-to-GDP ratio of 6.466 percent is calculated on SIPRI's internal GDP series, not the World Bank's $74.32 billion WDI figure cited above, and the two should not be divided against one another to verify it.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, SIPRI Milex, COW NMC, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
83/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
95/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (13)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (17)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
14
Ports
0
Satellites
4
Subsea cables
1
News items
1

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 17 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

36% of imports from Israel — supplier dependence

Arms clients (transfers)

Displacement (UNHCR): 131K refugees originated · 657.2K IDPs · 6.4K hosted

Compare Azerbaijan with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.