Africa / GNB

Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau ranks #211 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.1/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 29.4/100 (#79 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau, in the Africa region per this bundle's classification, had a population of 2,201,352 in 2024, according to World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI). Gross domestic product was $2,218,393,804.55 in 2024, per World Bank WDI, with GDP per capita at $1,007.74 the same year, also per World Bank WDI. Government debt stood at 73.6 percent of GDP in 2026, per the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO).

On defense, SIPRI's Military Expenditure Database puts military spending at $22,360,184.36 in 2025. Measured against SIPRI's own GDP series, not the World Bank GDP figure cited above, that spending equated to 0.887 percent of GDP in 2025, per SIPRI Milex. Active military personnel numbered 4,000 as of 2022, according to the Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (COW NMC) dataset, which puts the country's composite index of national capability (CINC) score at 0.00011638438 for 2022.

On governance, V-Dem v15 scores Guinea-Bissau's electoral democracy index at 0.252 and liberal democracy index at 0.095, both for 2025. State capacity is scored at 0.169 for the same year, also per V-Dem v15.

Energy figures from Our World in Data show primary energy consumption of 0.0053 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation of 0.08 terawatt-hours in 2024. Oil production and gas production are both recorded at 0.0 terawatt-hours, dated 2016.

The defense figures describe a force of 4,000 active personnel per COW NMC, supported by military spending of $22,360,184.36 per SIPRI Milex. The 0.887 percent of GDP figure for that spending is drawn from SIPRI's own GDP series rather than the $2,218,393,804.55 World Bank WDI GDP figure cited above, and the two should not be read as derived from one another. The 73.6 percent debt-to-GDP figure for 2026, from IMF WEO, carries a later year than the 2024-2025 economic figures it sits alongside. The three V-Dem v15 governance readings — electoral democracy at 0.252, liberal democracy at 0.095, and state capacity at 0.169 — are all dated 2025 and are reported here only as point values for that year.

Data gaps

No foreign exchange reserves figure is present in this bundle. The oil and gas production figures are dated 2016, older than the rest of the bundle's 2024-2025 figures. The COW NMC personnel and CINC readings are not refreshed past 2022.

Sources: World Bank WDI; IMF WEO; SIPRI Milex; COW NMC; V-Dem v15; Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
49/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
83/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (15)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Neighbours (2)

Disputes (3)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
1
Ports
2
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
1
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 1993): 1 transfers

Displacement (UNHCR): 1.8K refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 24 hosted

Compare Guinea-Bissau with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.