Africa / BDI

Burundi

Burundi ranks #128 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.3/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 38.4/100 (#43 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Burundi

Burundi's economy totaled $3.08 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI figures, with GDP per capita of $219.42 and a population of 14,047,786 that year — among the lowest per-capita figures in this dataset's economic series. Government debt is projected at 37.0% of GDP for 2026, according to IMF WEO data. Foreign reserves stood at just $90.35 million as of 2023, per World Bank WDI figures.

Defense spending reached $226.62 million in 2025, according to SIPRI's Milex database, equivalent to 3.242% of GDP under SIPRI's own GDP accounting for that year — a ratio drawn from SIPRI's parallel GDP series rather than the World Bank total cited above, and a comparatively heavy share of output. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (COW NMC) dataset recorded 30,000 active military personnel in 2022 and assigned Burundi a composite index of national capability (CINC) score of 0.0006347262 for that year.

V-Dem v15's 2025 governance indicators show an electoral democracy score of 0.185, a liberal democracy score of just 0.06, and a state capacity score of 0.083 — figures pointing to severe institutional weakness across all three measures, with none of the scores rising far above the bottom of the scale.

Energy consumption was minimal: primary energy use stood at 0.0137 exajoules in 2023, and electricity generation reached just 0.49 terawatt-hours in 2024, both per Our World in Data's energy series — among the smallest absolute figures recorded in either series for this country bundle, consistent with the low GDP per capita cited above.

Data gaps

Oil and gas production figures (both 0.0 terawatt-hours) are dated 2016, per Our World in Data — a decade-old reading that should not be treated as a current statement. The reserves figure dates to 2023, two years older than the most recent comparable figures elsewhere in this bundle, and the 37.0% debt-to-GDP figure is an IMF WEO projection for 2026 rather than a confirmed outturn. No generation-mix or import-dependence figures accompany the electricity data above.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, SIPRI Milex, Correlates of War National Material Capabilities, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy)

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
79/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Active armed violence
32/100 · weight 30%
UCDP GED
Governance fragility
92/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (15)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (12)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
2
Ports
0
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
0
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2019): 1 transfers

Displacement (UNHCR): 318.3K refugees originated · 6.8K IDPs · 110.8K hosted

Compare Burundi with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.