Asia / JPN

Japan

Japan ranks #6 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (11.8/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 11.5/100 (#185 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Japan: Large Economy, Rising Debt Load, Modest Military Spending Ratio

Japan's economy was valued at $4.03 trillion in 2024, with per-capita output of $32,487 and a population of about 124 million, per World Bank WDI figures. Those figures place Japan among the largest economies tracked, though per-capita income trails several other advanced economies in this dataset.

Fiscal Position

The IMF's World Economic Outlook puts Japan's government debt at 204.4 percent of GDP for 2026, the highest debt ratio among the countries assessed here. Foreign reserves stood at $1.25 trillion in 2025, per IMF IFS data — among the largest reserve stockpiles in the dataset, a buffer that sits alongside the high debt load rather than offsetting the fiscal picture directly.

Military Spending

SIPRI's 2025 figures put Japanese military expenditure at $62.16 billion, or 1.412 percent of GDP. That ratio is calculated against SIPRI's own GDP series and should not be recalculated against the World Bank's $4.03 trillion figure above; the two series are not interchangeable. Active personnel stood at 247,000 as of 2022, per the Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (COW NMC) dataset, which also puts Japan's composite index of national capability (CINC) score at 0.0247 for that year.

Governance

V-Dem's 2025 wave scores Japan at 0.819 on electoral democracy and 0.734 on liberal democracy, with a state capacity score of 0.956 — among the highest state-capacity readings in this set, indicating strong administrative and enforcement capability relative to the other governance measures.

Energy

Japan's primary energy consumption was 17.26 exajoules in 2024, and electricity generation reached 1,029.86 terawatt-hours in 2025, per Our World in Data's energy series. Domestic oil and gas production figures in this dataset — 6.198 TWh and 33.77 TWh, respectively — are both dated to 2016, nearly a decade old, and should not be read as current output levels. No more recent production figures are available here.

Data Gaps

All core metrics are present for Japan in this dataset, with the exception of up-to-date oil and gas production figures, which are stale by roughly nine years relative to the other 2024-2025 data points.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, IMF IFS, SIPRI Milex, COW NMC, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy)

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
31/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
4/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (11)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (186)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
108
Ports
162
Satellites
248
Subsea cables
50
News items
1

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 8 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

81% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 56 refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 42.5K hosted

Compare Japan with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.