Africa / MDG

Madagascar

Madagascar ranks #95 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.6/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 27.2/100 (#91 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Madagascar: Low-Income Economy, Minimal Defense Outlay

Madagascar's GDP was $17.42 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI, with a population of 31,964,956 the same year and source. GDP per capita came to $544.99 in 2024 (World Bank WDI) — the lowest per-capita figure among the comparable 2024 entries reviewed in this set.

Government debt is projected at 49.3 percent of GDP in 2026, per the IMF's World Economic Outlook — a moderate level. Foreign reserves were $2.78 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI.

Defense spending came to $119.68 million in 2025, per SIPRI's Military Expenditure Database, or 0.619 percent of GDP by SIPRI's own GDP series for that year — among the lower shares in this dataset's structure; this ratio should not be recalculated against the 2024 World Bank GDP figure above, as the two draw on separate series. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities dataset recorded 14,000 active personnel in 2022 and a Composite Index of National Capability score of 0.00109, also 2022.

V-Dem's 2025 release scores Madagascar at 0.361 on electoral democracy, 0.187 on liberal democracy, and 0.148 on state capacity — all comparatively low, with state capacity the weakest of the three measures.

Data gaps

Energy data shows both reasonably current and stale figures. Primary energy consumption was 0.0598 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation 2.43 terawatt-hours in 2024, both per Our World in Data's Energy dataset. Oil and gas production are both listed as zero and dated to 2016 — nearly a decade old — and should be read strictly as the latest available OWID entries, not as a current-year confirmation of zero hydrocarbon output.

All other figures in this bundle fall within the 2022–2026 range and are attributed to the years given above; none should be combined across years into a single snapshot of Madagascar's economy or security posture. The spread between the 2026 debt projection and the 2024 GDP and reserves figures is itself a reminder that fiscal and output data here come from different vintages and should not be read as a single coherent year.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, SIPRI Milex, Correlates of War National Material Capabilities, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
42/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
85/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (13)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (1)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
23
Ports
13
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
5
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2024): 1 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

100% of imports from Czechia — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 637 refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 87 hosted

Compare Madagascar with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.