India

India: Aggregate Weight, Constrained Per-Capita Base

Economic foundation

India's economy was worth $3.91 trillion in 2024, according to World Bank WDI data, supporting a population of 1.45 billion in the same year. That works out to roughly $2,695 per person, also per the World Bank's 2024 figures. The distance between the aggregate and the per-head number frames India's strategic position: it commands the absolute resources of a major power while operating from a low income base.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook projects general government debt at 83.4 percent of GDP for 2026. Against that, the IMF's International Financial Statistics record reserves of about $576 billion in 2025, a substantial external buffer.

Military posture

SIPRI's 2025 figures put Indian military expenditure at $92.1 billion, equivalent to 2.295 percent of GDP on SIPRI's own accounting. Manpower data is considerably older: the Correlates of War National Material Capabilities series, current to 2022, records 1,460,000 active personnel. The same 2022 release gives India a Composite Index of National Capability score of 0.0994. CINC is constructed as a state's share of global totals across six components, so the score places India at close to a tenth of measured world capability in that year.

The FAS Nuclear Notebook estimates 180 warheads as of 2025. Readers should note the three-year gap between the 2022 manpower and capability readings and the 2025 spending and warhead estimates; the dataset carries no more recent personnel count.

Governance indicators

V-Dem's v15 release scores India for 2025 at 0.377 on electoral democracy and 0.26 on liberal democracy, both on zero-to-one scales. State capacity is scored at 0.397 for the same year. The three readings sit in the lower half of their respective ranges, with the liberal democracy component the weakest of the set.

Energy

Our World in Data records Indian primary energy at 40.81 exajoules in 2024 and electricity generation at 2,081.6 terawatt-hours in 2025. Domestic hydrocarbon output is modest relative to that demand: 382.5 TWh of oil production and 323.5 TWh of gas production, both 2024 figures from the same source. The dataset contains no import or trade-flow data, so the import share of India's energy balance cannot be stated from these facts.

Data gaps

This file carries no figures on arms transfers, alliance commitments, conflict events, casualties, or border disputes. Military manpower and composite capability are three years behind the fiscal and nuclear estimates. Any assessment of India's regional military balance would require data this file does not contain.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, IMF IFS, SIPRI Milex, COW NMC, FAS Nuclear Notebook, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).