America / COL

Colombia

Colombia ranks #27 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (4.3/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 78.2/100 (#21 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Colombia: Higher Military Spending Share, Mid-Range Governance Scores

Colombia's GDP stood at $418.8 billion in 2024, per the World Bank's WDI data, with GDP per capita of $7,919 and a population of 52.9 million, both for the same year. The IMF's WEO projects government debt at 60.9% of GDP in 2026, the highest debt-to-GDP projection among this group's data so far reviewed.

Military and Fiscal Position

SIPRI's 2025 figures put Colombian military expenditure at $14.5 billion, or 3.202% of GDP under SIPRI's own GDP series — a comparatively high military-spending share relative to GDP. This ratio is drawn from SIPRI's own GDP denominator and should not be recalculated against the World Bank GDP figure cited above. The IMF's IFS data show reserves of $65.1 billion in 2025.

The COW NMC dataset lists 256,000 active personnel in 2022, a large force relative to Colombia's GDP, and a CINC score of 0.0057 for the same year.

Governance

V-Dem's 2025 (v15) scores rate Colombia at 0.679 on electoral democracy and 0.555 on liberal democracy — lower than the other states in this set reviewed so far — with a state capacity score of 0.749.

Energy

Per Our World in Data, Colombia consumed 2.22 exajoules of primary energy in 2024 and generated 90.36 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2025. Domestic production figures for 2024 show 474.6 TWh of oil and 110.95 TWh of gas, indicating Colombia produces substantially more oil and gas, in energy-equivalent terms, than it consumes as primary energy domestically, consistent with a net-exporting profile on these two fuels.

Summary

The overall picture is of a middle-income economy — $7,919 in GDP per capita per the World Bank — carrying a comparatively high military burden. The 3.202% milex share of GDP, per SIPRI's own series, and the active-personnel figure of 256,000 from COW NMC, both stand out against Colombia's GDP, pointing to a security establishment that is large relative to the size of the economy supporting it. V-Dem's governance scores, at 0.679 for electoral democracy and 0.555 for liberal democracy, sit at mid-range levels, with a state capacity score of 0.749. The reserves figure of $65.1 billion and government debt projection of 60.9% of GDP for 2026 round out a fiscal position that, on these figures alone, shows no acute signal either way.

Sources: World Bank WDI; IMF WEO; IMF IFS; SIPRI Milex; COW NMC; V-Dem v15; Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forecast conflict risk
99/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS
Forced displacement
97/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Active armed violence
56/100 · weight 30%
UCDP GED
Governance fragility
25/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (34)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (49)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
60
Ports
6
Satellites
1
Subsea cables
12
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 86% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 8 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

44% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 79.7K refugees originated · 7.2M IDPs · 1.5K hosted

Compare Colombia with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.