Europe / EST

Estonia

Estonia ranks #138 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.3/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 11/100 (#186 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Estonia

Estonia's GDP reached $43.13 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI, with GDP per capita of $31,428.35 across a population of 1,372,341 the same year. The IMF WEO projects government debt at 27.8% of GDP for 2026. IMF IFS reports reserves at $2.41 billion for 2025.

Military and power indicators

SIPRI's 2025 data record Estonian military expenditure at $1.576 billion, or 3.374% of GDP on SIPRI's own GDP accounting — a ratio tied to SIPRI's internal GDP series, not the World Bank GDP figure cited above, and the two should not be cross-divided. COW NMC lists 7,000 active personnel in 2022 and a CINC score of 0.00019631312 for that year.

Governance

V-Dem v15's 2025 scores place Estonia's electoral democracy index at 0.887 and liberal democracy index at 0.837, with a state capacity score of 0.985 — among the highest values on V-Dem's 0-to-1 scale appearing anywhere in this bundle's own figures.

Energy

Primary energy consumption was 0.2008 exajoules in 2024, and electricity generation was 6.11 terawatt-hours in 2025, both per Our World in Data. Oil and gas production are both listed at zero terawatt-hours, dated 2016 — a figure a decade older than the rest of Estonia's energy data here and not to be read as current.

Read together, the figures describe a state carrying comparatively low debt (27.8% of GDP, IMF WEO, 2026) while directing 3.374% of GDP to defense on SIPRI's own accounting (SIPRI Milex, 2025), against governance scores — 0.887 electoral democracy, 0.837 liberal democracy, 0.985 state capacity, all V-Dem v15, 2025 — that sit near the top of V-Dem's 0-to-1 scales.

Data gaps

The oil and gas production entries are stale, carrying a 2016 reference year against 2024-2025 dates elsewhere in the energy section. No trade or inflation data accompany this bundle. As elsewhere, Estonia's 3.374% milex/GDP share reflects SIPRI's own GDP accounting and should not be checked against the World Bank's $43.13 billion GDP topline.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, IMF IFS, SIPRI Milex, Correlates of War National Material Capabilities, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
30/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
2/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (5)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (12)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
6
Ports
3
Satellites
1
Subsea cables
8
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 8 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

24% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 86 refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 41.3K hosted

Compare Estonia with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.