America / PRY

Paraguay

Paraguay ranks #118 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.4/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 25.8/100 (#103 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Paraguay: Low Defense Burden, Mid-Range Governance Scores

Paraguay's gross domestic product reached $44.5 billion in 2024, per World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI), with per-capita output of $6,416.10 across a population of roughly 6.9 million the same year. Government debt was 37.8% of GDP in 2026, per IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) data, and foreign exchange reserves stood at $9.52 billion in 2025, per IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS).

Military expenditure totaled $421.1 million in 2025, according to SIPRI's Military Expenditure Database, equal to 0.876% of GDP on SIPRI's own GDP series for that year — a ratio that should not be checked against the World Bank GDP figure cited above, since the two are separate accountings. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (COW NMC) dataset counts 14,000 active personnel as of 2022 and assigns Paraguay a Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) score of 0.00042426863 for that year.

V-Dem's 2025 data put the electoral democracy index at 0.581 and the liberal democracy index at 0.376, with state capacity scoring 0.391 — the lowest of the three governance measures in this dataset for Paraguay. Paraguay's CINC score of 0.00042426863 reflects COW NMC's composite of population, personnel, military spending, and industrial indicators folded into a single measure of relative material capability.

Energy figures from Our World in Data show primary energy use of 0.1858 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation of 45.35 terawatt-hours in 2025, both recorded independently and not converted against one another here.

Data gaps

Both oil and gas production are listed at zero for 2016 in Our World in Data's series, a reading now roughly a decade old. The milex/GDP figure above is tied to SIPRI's own GDP series, not the World Bank's, and the two must not be divided against each other to produce a new ratio. The 37.8% debt-to-GDP figure cited above is an IMF projection for 2026, not a historical outturn.

Sources: World Bank World Development Indicators; IMF World Economic Outlook; IMF International Financial Statistics; SIPRI Military Expenditure Database; Correlates of War National Material Capabilities; V-Dem v15; Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
48/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
61/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (34)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (30)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
14
Ports
1
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
0
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 5 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

33% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 162 refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 4.6K hosted

Compare Paraguay with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.