Oceania / TON

Tonga

Tonga ranks #189 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.1/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 18.4/100 (#136 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Tonga: Small Pacific Economy With a Light Defense Footprint

Tonga's economy generated gross domestic product of $591,139,749.44 in 2023, per World Bank WDI figures, supporting a population of 104,175 people in 2024, also per World Bank WDI. That put GDP per capita at $5,651.59 in 2023, per World Bank WDI. The IMF's World Economic Outlook projects government debt at 34.4% of GDP for 2026, a moderate level relative to the reserves position described below, while World Bank WDI records foreign exchange reserves of $377,298,748.75 for 2024 — a reserves figure that, set against the same year's economic output, points to a comparatively well-cushioned external position by the measures captured in this bundle.

Military capacity

The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities dataset records 1,000 active military personnel for Tonga in 2022, and assigns a Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) score of 1.093065e-05 for the same year. That personnel count represents a small standing force, and the CINC score places Tonga's aggregate capability — spanning military, demographic and economic components in the Correlates of War methodology — at a modest level within the global system for that year.

Energy

Our World in Data's Energy dataset records primary energy consumption of 0.0026 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation of 0.07 terawatt-hours in 2024. Oil and gas production are both recorded at zero for 2016, meaning no domestic hydrocarbon extraction appears in this bundle's energy series. The scale of both primary energy consumption and electricity generation is consistent with a small island economy with a limited industrial energy base.

Data gaps

  • No V-Dem governance indicators (electoral democracy, liberal democracy, state capacity) appear in this bundle.
  • No SIPRI military expenditure figures are present, so defense spending cannot be assessed alongside the personnel and CINC figures above.
  • Oil and gas production data date to 2016, markedly older than the rest of the energy series, which runs to 2023 and 2024.
  • The reserves and population figures are both dated 2024, while GDP and GDP per capita are dated 2023; the bundle does not supply a matching 2024 GDP figure.

Sources: World Bank WDI; IMF WEO; Correlates of War National Material Capabilities; Our World in Data (Energy)

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
44/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Capability profile

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (0)

No alliance data loaded.

Neighbours (2)

Disputes (0)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

No militarized disputes recorded (COW MID).

Signals

Airports
3
Ports
3
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
3
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2020): 1 transfers

Displacement (UNHCR): 65 refugees originated · 0 IDPs ·

Compare Tonga with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.