Asia / LKA

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka ranks #39 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (2.8/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 78.9/100 (#19 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Sri Lanka: Small Economy, High Debt, Large Personnel Base Relative to Military Budget

Sri Lanka's economy was valued at $98.96 billion in 2024, with per-capita output of $4,515.57 and a population of about 21.92 million, per World Bank WDI figures — the smallest economy among the countries in this batch.

Fiscal Position

The IMF's World Economic Outlook puts Sri Lankan government debt at 100.8 percent of GDP, a figure dated to 2024 rather than 2026 as with most other countries in this batch — worth noting since it is not on the same forecast horizon as the other debt ratios cited here. Foreign reserves stood at $6.75 billion in 2025, per IMF IFS data — the smallest reserve position in this batch.

Military Spending

SIPRI's 2025 figures put Sri Lankan military expenditure at $1.39 billion, or 1.311 percent of GDP under SIPRI's own GDP series. That ratio should not be recomputed against the World Bank's $98.96 billion GDP figure above. Active personnel numbered 255,000 in 2022, per COW NMC — a notably large force relative to the size of the military budget and the overall economy, among the largest personnel figures in this batch despite the smallest GDP. COW NMC scores Sri Lanka's CINC at 0.00306 for that year.

Governance

V-Dem's 2025 data scores Sri Lanka at 0.783 on electoral democracy and 0.613 on liberal democracy, with a state capacity score of 0.829.

Energy

Sri Lanka's primary energy consumption was 0.4008 exajoules in 2024, and electricity generation reached 17.25 terawatt-hours in 2025, per Our World in Data — the smallest energy footprint in this batch. Both oil and gas production are recorded as 0.0 terawatt-hours, dated 2016; that year is nearly a decade old, and while the zero figures are consistent with Sri Lanka's lack of known domestic hydrocarbon production, no more current data confirms that remains the case today.

Data Gaps

The government debt figure is two years older than the comparable figures for most other countries in this batch, and the oil/gas production figures are stale by about a decade. No other core metrics are missing for Sri Lanka in this dataset.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, IMF IFS, SIPRI Milex, COW NMC, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy)

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forecast conflict risk
100/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS
Forced displacement
74/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
17/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (0)

No alliance data loaded.

Neighbours (1)

Disputes (3)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
10
Ports
0
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
9
News items
1

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 100% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 3 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

60% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 148.4K refugees originated · 4.1K IDPs · 213 hosted

Compare Sri Lanka with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.