Asia / TKM

Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan ranks #102 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.5/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 31.3/100 (#70 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Turkmenistan: Major Hydrocarbon Producer With Severely Dated Fiscal and Defense Data

Turkmenistan's economy was valued at $51.39 billion in 2024, with per-capita output of $6,856.66, on a population of 7,494,498, per World Bank WDI figures. Government debt is projected at a low 3.7% of GDP in 2026, per IMF WEO.

Defense Posture — Data Gap

This bundle's only military spending figures for Turkmenistan are from SIPRI Milex and date to 1999: outlays of $111.92 million, equivalent to 3.114% of GDP by SIPRI's own GDP series for that year. That figure is more than a quarter-century old and should not be treated as representative of current defense spending. Separately, active personnel are recorded at 37,000 as of 2022, per COW NMC, with a composite index of national capability (CINC) of 0.0012592633 for the same year, also per COW NMC — figures collected on a different basis and year than the milex data, so the two should not be combined into a ratio.

Governance

V-Dem v15's 2025 scores are low across the board: an electoral democracy index of 0.148, a liberal democracy index of 0.034, and a state capacity score of 0.053, consistent with a highly closed political system per V-Dem's framework.

Energy

Turkmenistan's energy profile reflects its status as a hydrocarbon producer: primary energy consumption reached 1.3362 exajoules in 2024, per Our World in Data's energy series, with electricity generation of 33.01 terawatt-hours, oil production of 104.783 terawatt-hours, and gas production of 734.634 terawatt-hours, all for 2024 from the same source.

Data Gaps

Two figures in this bundle are severely stale: foreign reserves of $1.51 billion, per World Bank WDI, and the SIPRI milex figures above, both dated to 1999. Neither should be read as reflecting Turkmenistan's current reserve position or defense budget; this bundle contains no more recent update for either series. The 3.114% milex/GDP figure is tied to SIPRI's own 1999 GDP series and must not be compared against the World Bank's 2024 GDP figure of $51.39 billion.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, SIPRI Milex, COW NMC, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
50/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
95/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (15)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (2)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
8
Ports
0
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
0
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2021): 21 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

28% of imports from Italy — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 1.9K refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 9 hosted

Compare Turkmenistan with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.