Asia / SYR

Syria

Syria ranks #50 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (1.9/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 88.8/100 (#5 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Syria: Economic and Fiscal Figures Predate the Current Period

Most of the quantitative data available on Syria in this dataset are old, in several cases by more than a decade, and should be read as describing a prior period rather than current conditions. This briefing states the gaps directly and draws no inference the figures do not support.

Economy

The World Bank's WDI figures put Syria's GDP at $23.6 billion and GDP per capita at $1,052, both dated 2022. Population is more recent, at 24,672,760 for 2024, also World Bank WDI.

Debt and Reserves

The IMF's WEO figures show government debt at 30.0% of GDP, dated 2010 — 16 years before this briefing and before the civil conflict that began in 2011. The World Bank's WDI data list reserves at $20.6 billion, also dated 2010. Neither figure reflects any period since.

Military

SIPRI's figures show Syrian military expenditure at $2.49 billion for 2011, with a milex-to-GDP ratio of 4.056% dated 2010 under SIPRI's own GDP series — a ratio drawn from a different year than the expenditure figure itself, and from SIPRI's own GDP series rather than the World Bank GDP figure above; the two series should not be mixed. The COW NMC dataset lists 169,000 active personnel in 2022 and a CINC score of 0.0029 for the same year, the only military-adjacent figures here close to the present.

Governance

V-Dem's 2025 (v15) scores are current: electoral democracy at 0.128, liberal democracy at 0.054, and state capacity at 0.282 — each toward the low end of V-Dem's global range.

Energy

Per Our World in Data, primary energy consumption was 0.338 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation was 24.88 terawatt-hours in 2024. Oil production was 19.28 TWh and gas production 27.23 TWh, both for 2024 — the most recent figures in this file, though they describe output levels only, not broader economic conditions.

Sources: World Bank WDI; IMF WEO; SIPRI Milex; COW NMC; V-Dem v15; Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forecast conflict risk
100/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS
Forced displacement
99/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Active armed violence
73/100 · weight 30%
UCDP GED
Governance fragility
72/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (21)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (88)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
10
Ports
0
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
4
News items
20

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 100% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 2 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

50% of imports from Türkiye — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 4.9M refugees originated · 5.5M IDPs · 9.9K hosted

Compare Syria with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.