America / HND

Honduras

Honduras ranks #126 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.3/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 29.7/100 (#76 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Honduras

Honduras's economy totaled $37.09 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI figures, with GDP per capita of $3,426.43 and a population of 10,825,703 that year. Government debt is projected at 43.8% of GDP for 2026, according to IMF WEO data — a moderate load by this single measure. Foreign reserves stood at $10.11 billion as of 2025, per IMF IFS figures, a sizable buffer relative to the GDP figure cited above.

Defense spending reached $580.25 million in 2025, according to SIPRI's Milex database, equivalent to 1.463% of GDP under SIPRI's own GDP accounting for that year — a ratio drawn from SIPRI's parallel GDP series rather than the World Bank total cited above. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (COW NMC) dataset recorded 15,000 active military personnel in 2022 and assigned Honduras a composite index of national capability (CINC) score of 0.00058640557 for that year, a composite COW derives from demographic, economic, and military inputs rather than spending alone.

V-Dem v15's 2025 governance indicators show an electoral democracy score of 0.511, a liberal democracy score of 0.38, and a state capacity score of 0.526. The gap between the electoral and liberal democracy scores suggests that, on these measures, formal electoral mechanisms are assessed more favorably than the liberal safeguards that constrain executive power.

Energy use was limited: primary energy consumption stood at 0.1869 exajoules in 2023, and electricity generation reached 12.48 terawatt-hours in 2024, both per Our World in Data's energy series. No figures on generation mix, import dependence, or consumption trend are present in this bundle, limiting what can be said about the sector's trajectory.

Data gaps

Oil and gas production figures (both 0.0 terawatt-hours) are dated 2016, per Our World in Data — a decade-old reading that should not be treated as a current statement on domestic hydrocarbon output. The 43.8% debt-to-GDP figure is an IMF WEO projection for 2026 rather than a confirmed historical outturn. No generation-mix or import-dependence figures accompany the electricity data above, so the composition of Honduras's power supply cannot be assessed from this bundle.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, IMF IFS, SIPRI Milex, Correlates of War National Material Capabilities, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy)

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
82/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
47/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Active armed violence
15/100 · weight 30%
UCDP GED
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (34)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (36)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
8
Ports
3
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
3
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2023): 1 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

50% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 94.4K refugees originated · 423.8K IDPs · 270 hosted

Compare Honduras with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.