Mexico

Mexico: Large Population, Moderate Debt, Wide Gap Between Electoral and Liberal Democracy Scores

Mexico's economy was valued at $1.86 trillion in 2024, with per-capita output of $14,185.78 and a population of roughly 130.86 million, per World Bank WDI figures — the largest population among the countries in this batch.

Fiscal Position

The IMF's World Economic Outlook puts Mexican government debt at 62.7 percent of GDP for 2026, moderate relative to the other countries assessed here. Foreign reserves stood at $239.33 billion in 2025, per IMF IFS data — a large reserve position relative to Mexico's military budget.

Military Spending

SIPRI's 2025 figures put Mexican military expenditure at $13.65 billion, or 0.737 percent of GDP under SIPRI's own GDP series — the lowest ratio in this batch. That figure should not be recalculated against the World Bank's $1.86 trillion GDP figure above, as the two series are not interchangeable. Active personnel numbered 216,000 in 2022, per COW NMC, with a CINC score of 0.01139 for that year.

Governance

V-Dem's 2025 data scores Mexico at 0.469 on electoral democracy but only 0.221 on liberal democracy — a gap of nearly 0.25, the widest spread between the two measures in this batch, indicating that constraints on executive power and judicial independence register markedly weaker than electoral competitiveness alone would suggest. State capacity is scored at 0.355, also low relative to the other countries here.

Energy

Mexico's primary energy consumption was 8.317 exajoules in 2024, and electricity generation reached 356.97 terawatt-hours in 2025, per Our World in Data. Domestic oil production was 1,120.788 terawatt-hours and gas production 357.64 terawatt-hours, both for 2024 — substantial hydrocarbon output, and current relative to the other figures in this file.

Military Capability Context

COW NMC's CINC score of 0.01139 for Mexico in 2022 reflects a composite index of military, demographic and industrial indicators, a separate methodology from SIPRI's spending data and not a direct extension of the $13.65 billion milex figure above.

Data Gaps

No metrics are missing for Mexico in this dataset. The divergence between the electoral and liberal democracy scores, and the low state-capacity reading, are the most notable governance signals here and warrant attention in any risk assessment built on this data.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, IMF IFS, SIPRI Milex, COW NMC, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy)