Africa / TZA

Tanzania

Tanzania ranks #94 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.6/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 18.7/100 (#133 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Tanzania: Growing Economy, Dated Reserves Figure

Tanzania's GDP reached $78.84 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI, with a population of 68,560,157 the same year and source. GDP per capita was $1,186.72 in 2024 (World Bank WDI).

Government debt is projected at 48.7 percent of GDP in 2026, per the IMF's World Economic Outlook — a moderate level. Foreign reserves, however, are recorded at $5.05 billion in 2018, per World Bank WDI — a figure seven years older than the GDP and population data above and should not be read as describing current reserve holdings.

Defense spending came to $1.03 billion in 2025, per SIPRI's Military Expenditure Database, or 1.157 percent of GDP by SIPRI's own GDP series for that year; this ratio should not be recalculated against the 2024 World Bank GDP figure cited above, as the two draw on different series and years. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities dataset recorded 27,000 active personnel in 2022 and a Composite Index of National Capability score of 0.00254, also 2022.

V-Dem's 2025 release gives Tanzania an electoral democracy index of 0.365, a liberal democracy index of 0.297, and a state capacity score of 0.712 — the capacity score notably higher than either democracy measure, suggesting administrative reach that outpaces the openness of the political system by V-Dem's measures.

Data gaps

Two figures in this bundle are clearly stale. The reserves figure, at $5.05 billion, is dated 2018 and is the oldest economic figure in this file; no more recent reserves number is available here. Energy data shows a similar split: primary energy consumption (0.2876 exajoules, 2023) and electricity generation (8.84 terawatt-hours, 2024) are reasonably current, both per Our World in Data's Energy dataset, but oil production is listed as zero and gas production at 16.299 terawatt-hours, both dated to 2016 — nearly a decade old and not to be read as current output levels.

Given the reserves gap, any fiscal-cushion assessment for Tanzania should rely on the 2026 debt projection rather than pairing it with the dated 2018 reserves figure.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, SIPRI Milex, Correlates of War National Material Capabilities, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
51/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Active armed violence
10/100 · weight 30%
UCDP GED
Governance fragility
29/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (10)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (16)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
12
Ports
8
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
5
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 1 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

29% of imports from France — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 1.6K refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 171.1K hosted

Compare Tanzania with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.