Europe / MDA

Moldova

Moldova ranks #182 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.1/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 22.8/100 (#118 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Moldova

Economic Position

Moldova's gross domestic product was approximately $18.20 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI, with GDP per capita of about $7,576 the same year. Population was 2,402,306 in 2024, per World Bank WDI. The IMF WEO puts government debt at 39.3% of GDP for 2026. Reserves stood at roughly $5.996 billion in 2025, per IMF IFS.

Military and Power Indicators

SIPRI Milex data puts military expenditure at about $113.3 million in 2025, equivalent to 0.56% of GDP for the same year — a share drawn from SIPRI's own GDP series rather than the World Bank figure cited above. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities dataset records 5,000 active military personnel in 2022, with a composite index of national capability (CINC) of 0.00020485083 for the same year.

Governance

V-Dem v15's 2025 data gives Moldova an electoral democracy index of 0.553 and a liberal democracy index of 0.449. State capacity is scored considerably higher, at 0.789, for the same year.

Energy

Primary energy consumption was 0.1314 exajoules in 2023, per Our World in Data. Electricity generation was 6.16 terawatt-hours in 2025, per the same source. Oil production was 0.0 terawatt-hours in 2016, while gas production was recorded at 0.103 terawatt-hours the same year, per Our World in Data.

Data Gaps

The oil and gas production figures are dated 2016, well behind the 2023 and 2025 energy consumption and generation figures in this bundle, and should not be treated as current. The personnel and CINC figures are from 2022, several years older than the economic and governance data presented alongside them.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, IMF IFS, SIPRI Milex, Correlates of War National Material Capabilities, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
56/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
21/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (13)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Neighbours (2)

Disputes (4)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
5
Ports
0
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
0
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 1 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

17% of imports from Poland — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 5.8K refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 149.3K hosted

Compare Moldova with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.