Tajikistan

Tajikistan: Low Governance Scores and a Thin Fiscal Buffer

Tajikistan's GDP was $14.20 billion in 2024, with GDP per capita of $1,341 and a population of 10,590,927, according to World Bank WDI data. V-Dem's 2025 wave scores the country at 0.158 for electoral democracy, 0.043 for liberal democracy, and 0.039 for state capacity — all near the bottom of V-Dem's 0-1 scale.

SIPRI's 2025 Milex data recorded military expenditure of $246.9 million, or 1.474 percent of GDP under SIPRI's own GDP series; that figure should not be recalculated against the World Bank GDP estimate cited above. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities dataset recorded 9,000 active-duty personnel in 2022 and a CINC score of 0.00049079215 for the same year.

On fiscal position, the IMF's World Economic Outlook projects government debt at 21.9 percent of GDP for 2026. Reserves of $3.63 billion for 2024 are sourced to World Bank WDI rather than IMF IFS in this bundle, a departure from the IMF sourcing used for reserves in some other country files and worth noting when tracking this figure over time.

The Correlates of War CINC score of 0.00049079215, a fractional share of global material capability built from population, military personnel, and industrial inputs, should be read alongside the 9,000-person active-duty figure above rather than as a separate strength ranking.

Energy

Our World in Data figures put primary energy consumption at 0.1775 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation at 24.67 terawatt-hours in 2025 — a relatively large generation figure set against the small primary-energy reading, which may reflect the structure of the underlying accounting rather than a contradiction, though it is reported here as it appears in the source. Oil production is recorded at 0.114 terawatt-hours and gas production at 0.206 terawatt-hours, both dated 2016.

Data Gaps

The oil and gas production figures are nearly a decade stale and should not be treated as current output. The reserves figure is sourced to World Bank WDI rather than the IMF series used for reserves elsewhere in this dataset. The 2026 government debt figure is an IMF projection rather than a realized outturn. No conflict-event or alliance data are present in this bundle.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, SIPRI Milex, Correlates of War NMC, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).