Rwanda

Rwanda: Constrained Political Space, Modest Military Footprint

Rwanda's gross domestic product stood at $14.3 billion in 2024, per World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI), with per-capita output of $999.65 across a population of roughly 14.3 million the same year. Government debt is projected at 66.8% of GDP in 2026, per IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) data, and foreign exchange reserves stood at $1.96 billion in 2025, per IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS).

Military spending totaled $191.2 million in 2025, according to SIPRI's Military Expenditure Database, equal to 1.286% of GDP on SIPRI's own GDP series for that year; this ratio should not be cross-checked against the World Bank GDP figure cited above. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (COW NMC) dataset counts 33,000 active personnel as of 2022 and assigns Rwanda a Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) score of 0.0006762761 for that year.

V-Dem's 2025 data describe a tightly controlled political system: an electoral democracy index of 0.193 and a liberal democracy index of 0.09. State capacity scored considerably higher, at 0.377, pointing to an administrative apparatus that functions well beyond the narrow bounds of formal political contestation recorded in the same dataset.

Rwanda's CINC score is COW NMC's composite of population, military personnel and spending, and industrial indicators folded into a single measure of relative material capability, rather than a reading of any single input.

Energy use is minimal. Our World in Data puts primary energy consumption at 0.0266 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation at 1.13 terawatt-hours in 2024.

Data gaps

Both oil and gas production are listed at zero for 2016 in Our World in Data's series, a reading now a decade old and not necessarily reflective of any later activity. The SIPRI milex/GDP ratio above is built on SIPRI's own GDP accounting and should not be divided against the World Bank GDP figure used elsewhere in this briefing. The 66.8% debt-to-GDP figure cited above is an IMF projection for 2026 rather than a confirmed outturn.

Sources: World Bank World Development Indicators; IMF World Economic Outlook; IMF International Financial Statistics; SIPRI Military Expenditure Database; Correlates of War National Material Capabilities; V-Dem v15; Our World in Data (Energy).