Lebanon

Lebanon: A Fragile State Carrying an Outsized Debt Load

Lebanon's economy remains small relative to its population and debt burden. Gross domestic product stood at $20.08 billion in 2023, per World Bank WDI data, against a population of 5,805,962 recorded by the same source in 2024. That works out to a GDP per capita of $3,477.72 as of 2023, also World Bank WDI. Because the GDP figure is dated to 2023, it should be read as a snapshot from that year and may not capture subsequent developments.

The state's balance sheet is strained. The IMF's World Economic Outlook puts government debt at 139.4 percent of GDP in 2025, a level consistent with Lebanon's prolonged fiscal crisis. Foreign reserves, by contrast, were reported at $33.30 billion in 2024 (World Bank WDI), a figure that sits uneasily alongside the debt ratio and underscores how reserve composition and debt stock are measured on different bases and years here.

On defense, SIPRI's 2025 military expenditure data put Lebanese milex at $828.3 million, equivalent to 2.51 percent of GDP by SIPRI's own GDP series for that year — a ratio that should not be recalculated against the World Bank's GDP figure above, since the two series are not interchangeable. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities dataset recorded 60,000 active personnel in 2022 and a Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) score of 0.00077, also 2022.

Governance indicators from V-Dem's 2025 release describe a weak institutional environment: an electoral democracy index of 0.419, a liberal democracy index of 0.267, and a state capacity score of 0.289.

Data gaps

Energy data is thin and partly stale. Primary energy consumption was 0.2626 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation 5.34 terawatt-hours in 2024, both per Our World in Data's Energy dataset. However, oil and gas production figures are both listed as zero and dated to 2016 — nearly a decade old — and should not be read as current production levels, only as the latest available OWID entries. Readers should also note the GDP and GDP-per-capita figures above are from 2023 and may not reflect current conditions.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, SIPRI Milex, Correlates of War National Material Capabilities, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).