Europe / ISL

Iceland

Iceland ranks #141 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.3/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 4.2/100 (#212 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Iceland

Iceland's GDP reached $33.26 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI, with GDP per capita of $86,040.53 across a population of 386,506 the same year. The IMF WEO projects government debt at 53.6% of GDP for 2026. IMF IFS reports reserves of $7.46 billion for 2025.

Military and power indicators

SIPRI's 2025 data record Icelandic military expenditure at $0.0, or 0.0% of GDP — Iceland maintains no standing armed forces in this series. COW NMC correspondingly lists zero active personnel for 2022, with a CINC score of 3.9089289e-05 for that year, reflecting the absence of a conventional military establishment rather than a data gap.

Governance

V-Dem v15's 2025 scores place Iceland's electoral democracy index at 0.807 and liberal democracy index at 0.72, with a state capacity score of 0.983 — a high value on V-Dem's 0-to-1 scale.

Energy

Primary energy consumption was 0.2261 exajoules in 2024, and electricity generation reached 19.05 terawatt-hours the same year, both per Our World in Data. Oil and gas production are both listed at zero terawatt-hours, dated 2016 — consistent with Iceland's lack of domestic hydrocarbon production, though the figure itself is a decade old relative to the rest of this bundle's energy data.

Taken together, the figures describe a state with moderate government debt (53.6% of GDP, IMF WEO, 2026), substantial reserves ($7.46 billion, IMF IFS, 2025), no standing defense establishment, and governance scores — 0.807 electoral democracy, 0.72 liberal democracy, 0.983 state capacity, all V-Dem v15, 2025 — that place state capacity near the top of V-Dem's 0-to-1 scale.

Data gaps

The zero figures for military expenditure and personnel describe Iceland's actual defense posture rather than missing data, and should be read as such rather than as a gap. The oil and gas production figures, while plausible given Iceland's energy profile, carry a 2016 reference year and are correspondingly stale relative to the 2024-2025 figures elsewhere in this bundle. No trade or inflation series accompany this set. Because Iceland's military expenditure is zero, no milex/GDP ratio beyond 0.0% can be meaningfully discussed, and the usual caution about SIPRI's internal GDP accounting versus the World Bank's GDP series is moot in this case.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, IMF IFS, SIPRI Milex, Correlates of War National Material Capabilities, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
11/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
2/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (18)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Neighbours (0)

No contiguity data.

Disputes (9)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
13
Ports
5
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
4
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2011): 1 transfers

Displacement (UNHCR): 0 refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 8.5K hosted

Compare Iceland with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.