Europe / UKR

Ukraine

Ukraine ranks #8 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (10.6/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 95.6/100 (#1 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Ukraine: A Wartime Economy on the Data's Own Terms

Economic base

World Bank WDI figures put Ukrainian gross domestic product at about $190.7 billion in 2024, with a population of roughly 37.86 million and output of $5,389 per head on the same series. The population figure carries caveats the supplied data do not spell out — nothing here records displacement, refugee outflows or territorial control, all of which bear directly on what that denominator means.

The fiscal position is dependent. IMF World Economic Outlook data show general government debt at 122.6 percent of GDP in 2026. IMF International Financial Statistics report official reserves of $53.4 billion in 2025, a sum large relative to the economy but, on these figures alone, not attributable to any source: no external-financing, grant or loan-disbursement data are supplied, so the reserve stock cannot be separated into earned and donated components.

Military weight

SIPRI's 2025 figures record military expenditure of $84.1 billion at 39.561 percent of GDP. That burden ratio is the single most consequential number in this file: it describes an economy reorganized around the war. The dollar figure and the GDP share come from SIPRI's own series and should not be recalculated against the 2024 World Bank GDP above. The supplied data also exclude foreign military aid delivered in kind, which for Ukraine is a large omission — none of the equipment, ammunition or intelligence support provided by partners appears in this spending line.

Correlates of War National Material Capabilities data record 688,000 active personnel in 2022 and a Composite Index of National Capability score of 0.00856. Both are 2022 vintage and therefore describe the force near the start of the full-scale war, not its current size. No post-2022 personnel figure is supplied, and no casualty, mobilization or equipment-stock data appear anywhere in this file.

No nuclear warhead figure is supplied for Ukraine. The file contains no entry for the metric; this briefing makes no inference from that absence.

Governance

V-Dem v15 scores for 2025 place electoral democracy at 0.386 and liberal democracy at 0.24 on a zero-to-one scale, with state capacity at 0.387. These are mid-to-low readings, and the supplied data give no time series, so whether they reflect wartime restrictions, longer-run institutional weakness or both cannot be determined from this file.

Energy

Energy data for Ukraine are the stalest in the set and should be used with care. Our World in Data records 2.16 exajoules of primary energy consumption in 2024 and 180.954 terawatt-hours of gas production the same year. But the electricity figure, 111.51 TWh, is from 2022, and the oil production figure, 28.341 TWh, is from 2016 — nine years older. Neither can describe current generating capacity after sustained strikes on the grid. Treat the electricity and oil lines as historical reference points, not as a picture of today.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, IMF IFS, SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, COW National Material Capabilities, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forecast conflict risk
100/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS
Active armed violence
100/100 · weight 30%
UCDP GED
Forced displacement
98/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
61/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (16)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (12)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
32
Ports
26
Satellites
7
Subsea cables
3
News items
7

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 100% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 86 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

30% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 5.2M refugees originated · 3.7M IDPs · 2.4K hosted

Compare Ukraine with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.