Asia / BHR

Bahrain

Bahrain ranks #143 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.3/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 23.8/100 (#112 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Bahrain

Bahrain's GDP reached $47.11 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI, with GDP per capita of $29,653.57 across a population of 1,588,670 the same year. The IMF WEO projects government debt at 152.4% of GDP for 2026 — a high figure relative to the GDP level reported above. Reserves stood at $4.95 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI.

Military and power indicators

SIPRI's 2025 data record Bahraini military expenditure at $1.468 billion, or 3.105% of GDP on SIPRI's own GDP accounting — a ratio tied to SIPRI's internal GDP series and not derivable from, or comparable to, the World Bank GDP figure cited above. COW NMC lists 8,000 active personnel in 2022 and a CINC score of 0.00068991445 for that year.

Governance

V-Dem v15's 2025 scores place Bahrain's electoral democracy index at 0.139 and liberal democracy index at 0.062, with a state capacity score of 0.245 — low values across all three measures on V-Dem's 0-to-1 scale.

Energy

Primary energy consumption was 0.932 exajoules in 2023, per Our World in Data, among the larger per-country energy totals in this bundle set against Bahrain's small population. Electricity generation reached 37.95 terawatt-hours in 2024. Gas production, at 165.719 terawatt-hours in 2024, is current and substantial. Oil production is listed at 35.989 terawatt-hours, but that figure is dated 2016 — nine years older than the 2024 gas-production and electricity figures sitting alongside it in the same bundle.

Taken as a whole, the bundle describes a state with elevated projected debt (152.4% of GDP, IMF WEO, 2026), defense spending at 3.105% of GDP on SIPRI's own accounting (SIPRI Milex, 2025), and governance scores — 0.139 electoral democracy, 0.062 liberal democracy, 0.245 state capacity, all V-Dem v15, 2025 — concentrated at the low end of V-Dem's 0-to-1 scales, alongside a substantial and current gas sector.

Data gaps

The oil-production figure is stale relative to the 2023-2024 dates on the other energy entries in this set, leaving an uneven picture: current for gas and electricity, outdated for oil. No trade-balance or inflation data accompany this bundle. The elevated 152.4% government-debt figure is an IMF WEO projection for 2026 rather than an observed historical outturn. As elsewhere, Bahrain's 3.105% milex/GDP share reflects SIPRI's own GDP accounting and should not be checked against the World Bank's $47.11 billion GDP topline.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, SIPRI Milex, Correlates of War National Material Capabilities, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
37/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
76/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (19)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (8)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
2
Ports
4
Satellites
1
Subsea cables
7
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 3 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

87% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 267 refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 240 hosted

Compare Bahrain with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.