Africa / SEN

Senegal

Senegal ranks #115 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.4/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 28.1/100 (#87 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Senegal: High Public Debt Load Against Steadier Governance Scores

Senegal's economy produced $32.8 billion in gross domestic product in 2024, per World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI), with per-capita output of $1,773.22 across a population of roughly 18.5 million the same year. Government debt is projected at 132.3% of GDP in 2026, per IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) data — a notably elevated debt load as recorded in that series.

Military expenditure reached $566.9 million in 2025, per SIPRI's Military Expenditure Database, equal to 1.555% of GDP on SIPRI's own GDP series for that year; this ratio should not be checked against the World Bank GDP figure cited above, as the two come from separate accounting. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (COW NMC) dataset counts 14,000 active personnel as of 2022 and assigns Senegal a Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) score of 0.00095365423 for that year.

V-Dem's 2025 data register an electoral democracy index of 0.633 and a liberal democracy index of 0.484, with state capacity scoring 0.691 — figures consistent with a functioning, if imperfect, democratic system by this dataset's measures.

Senegal's CINC score is COW NMC's composite of population, military personnel and spending, and industrial output into a single measure of relative material capability, rather than a reading of any one input alone.

Energy figures from Our World in Data show primary energy use of 0.1584 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation of 7.63 terawatt-hours in 2024.

Data gaps

Senegal shows no oil production in Our World in Data's 2016 reading, while gas production that year stood at 0.559 terawatt-hours — both figures now a decade old and not indicative of any subsequent change, a relevant caveat given the country's offshore gas development since that reading was taken. No foreign exchange reserves figure is present in this bundle. The milex/GDP share above rests on SIPRI's own GDP series, not the World Bank's, and the two must not be divided against one another. The projected 132.3% debt-to-GDP figure for 2026 is an IMF projection rather than an outturn and should be read as such.

Sources: World Bank World Development Indicators; IMF World Economic Outlook; SIPRI Military Expenditure Database; Correlates of War National Material Capabilities; V-Dem v15; Our World in Data (Energy).

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
66/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
31/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (22)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (13)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
10
Ports
6
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
5
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2024): 8 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

33% of imports from France — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 13K refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 17.3K hosted

Compare Senegal with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.