Asia / IRQ

Iraq

Iraq ranks #37 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (2.8/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 67.8/100 (#27 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Iraq's Oil Output Dwarfs Its Military Budget, Which Holds at 2.4% of GDP

Iraq, classified here within the Asia region, pairs a comparatively modest military budget with an oil-production figure far larger than any other metric in this briefing, according to the data assembled below. The figures here are presented descriptively; the dataset supports no judgment on the country's internal politics.

Economy and Fiscal Position Iraq's economy was valued at $279.6 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI figures, with GDP per capita of $6,074 and a population of 46.0 million. The IMF's 2026 World Economic Outlook puts government debt at 61.7 percent of GDP. Foreign exchange reserves were $100.7 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI.

Defense Spending and Capability SIPRI's 2025 figures put Iraqi military expenditure at $6.4 billion, equivalent to 2.447 percent of GDP under SIPRI's own GDP series; this ratio should not be recalculated against the World Bank GDP figure above. Active personnel numbered 193,000 as of 2022, per COW NMC — a small share of the 46.0 million population recorded above for 2024 — and the same source gives Iraq a CINC score of 0.005444705 for that year, a composite measure of demographic, industrial and military inputs rather than spending alone. No nuclear-warhead figure is present in this dataset.

Governance V-Dem's 2025 figures score Iraq's electoral democracy index at 0.369 and liberal democracy index at 0.22, both on a 0-1 scale. State capacity is scored at 0.199, the lowest of the three governance measures recorded here. These are reported as given, without further interpretation.

Energy Iraq's energy profile in this dataset is dominated by oil: production reached 2,507.699 TWh in 2024, per Our World in Data, alongside gas production of 119.244 TWh the same year. Primary energy consumption was 2.6524 exajoules in 2024, and electricity generation was 149.73 TWh in 2024 — figures that, set against the oil-production number above, point to a production base oriented heavily toward export rather than domestic consumption, on this dataset alone.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, SIPRI Milex, COW NMC, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy)

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forecast conflict risk
64/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS
Forced displacement
86/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Active armed violence
53/100 · weight 30%
UCDP GED
Governance fragility
80/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (26)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (167)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
30
Ports
6
Satellites
1
Subsea cables
4
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 8% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 1 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

24% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 270.7K refugees originated · 997.3K IDPs · 322.3K hosted

Compare Iraq with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.