Ethiopia

Ethiopia: Large Population, Thin Fiscal Buffers

Ethiopia's GDP was $149.7 billion in 2024, with per capita output of just $1,134 across a population of 132.1 million, per the World Bank's WDI figures for that year — a large population set against a low per capita income figure.

Fiscal and External Position

The IMF's WEO projects government debt at 40.4 percent of GDP in 2026, a forward estimate rather than an actual outturn. Reserves were $3.78 billion as of 2024, per World Bank WDI data — a comparatively thin external buffer set against the size of the population and economy.

Military Posture

SIPRI's 2025 figures put military expenditure at $528 million, or 0.494 percent of GDP — a low share of economic output on its own terms. That ratio is calculated against SIPRI's own GDP series, not the WDI figure cited above, and the two should not be combined. Active personnel numbered 503,000 as of 2022, per COW NMC — a large headcount set against the comparatively small dollar figure for spending — with a CINC score of 0.0085 in the same 2022 release. Both figures are three years old relative to the rest of this profile.

Governance

V-Dem's 2025 data gives Ethiopia an electoral democracy index of 0.257, a liberal democracy index of 0.1, and a state capacity score of 0.315 — low readings across all three measures under V-Dem's v15 methodology.

Energy

Primary energy consumption was 0.3212 exajoules in 2023, and electricity generation reached 33.37 TWh in 2025, per Our World in Data. Oil and gas production are both recorded as 0.0 TWh for 2016 — a reading that is both stale, nine years old, and indicates no domestic hydrocarbon output was recorded at that time. Neither figure says anything about current production.

What the Data Does Not Show

No figures are supplied on internal conflict dynamics, regional force deployments, foreign military assistance, or current-year reserves. The large gap between personnel headcount (503,000) and military spending ($528 million) is notable but the data does not explain it — equipment quality, pay levels, or force composition are not in this file.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, SIPRI Milex, COW NMC, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy)