Nigeria

Nigeria: Hydrocarbon Scale, Thin Per-Capita Base

Economy

Nigeria combines a large population with modest measured output. World Bank WDI data for 2024 put gross domestic product at $252.3 billion against a population of 232.7 million, giving output per head of $1,084. The population figure is the operative one for most planning questions: it is the demographic weight behind a comparatively small revenue base.

Public debt is low by the available measure. The IMF's World Economic Outlook puts general government debt at 32.3 percent of GDP for 2026. Reserves stood at $40.4 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI — roughly a sixth of annual output, and a meaningful buffer relative to the debt stock. Both figures suggest balance-sheet capacity rather than balance-sheet distress, though neither speaks to debt-service cost or revenue mobilization, which this dataset does not cover.

Defense

SIPRI's 2025 figures record military expenditure of $2.10 billion, or 0.909 percent of GDP. That is a current observation, and the sub-1-percent burden is the notable feature: Nigeria allocates a small share of national output to defense. Correlates of War National Material Capabilities data for 2022 record 143,000 active personnel and a CINC score of 0.0116, about 1.2 percent of global material capability, CINC being a share of the world total.

The combination — 143,000 personnel on a roughly $2.1 billion budget — points to a force sized for presence rather than one resourced for high-intensity operations, though this dataset contains no equipment, readiness, arms-transfer or conflict-event data to test that reading. Casualty and internal-security figures are absent entirely.

Governance

V-Dem v15 scores for 2025 show a mixed picture on indices running 0 to 1: electoral democracy at 0.505, liberal democracy at 0.311 and state capacity at 0.289. The spread matters. Electoral processes score near the midpoint while state capacity sits well below it, indicating that the binding constraint is administrative reach rather than the formal mechanics of contestation — relevant to service delivery, revenue collection and territorial control alike.

Energy

Hydrocarbons dominate. Our World in Data records oil production of 917.5 TWh and gas production of 468.5 TWh in 2024. Against that, domestic primary energy consumption was 1.9218 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation 41.54 TWh in 2025. Production vastly exceeds domestic electricity output, making Nigeria an exporter by structure — though this dataset carries no export, price or revenue data to quantify the fiscal contribution.

Data gaps

Personnel and CINC date from 2022. No trade, export-revenue, arms-transfer, nuclear or conflict data is supplied.

Sources: World Bank WDI; IMF WEO; SIPRI Military Expenditure Database; Correlates of War National Material Capabilities; V-Dem v15; Our World in Data (Energy).