Oceania / VUT

Vanuatu

Vanuatu ranks #193 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.1/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 17.6/100 (#143 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

Vanuatu: Pacific Economy With Moderate Debt and No Standing Military

Vanuatu's economy generated gross domestic product of $1,117,972,034.23 in 2024, per World Bank WDI, with a population of 327,777 in the same year, producing a GDP per capita of $3,410.77 for 2024. The IMF's World Economic Outlook projects government debt at 43.2% of GDP for 2026, while World Bank WDI records foreign exchange reserves of $614,649,778.92 for 2024 — a reserves figure that, set against the debt projection, suggests a reasonably supported external position by the measures captured here.

Governance

V-Dem's v15 dataset scores Vanuatu's electoral democracy at 0.729 and liberal democracy at 0.623 for 2025, with a state-capacity score of 0.822 for the same year. The state-capacity score is the highest of the three governance measures in this bundle, indicating comparatively strong administrative functioning as assessed by V-Dem relative to the electoral and liberal democracy components.

Military capacity

The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities dataset records zero active military personnel for Vanuatu in 2022, with a Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) score of 7.8500934e-06 for the same year. The absence of recorded standing personnel, paired with a non-zero CINC score, indicates that Vanuatu's measured national capability for that year derives from its demographic and economic weight in the Correlates of War framework rather than from a standing armed force.

Energy

Our World in Data's Energy dataset records primary energy consumption of 0.0044 exajoules for 2023 and electricity generation of 0.08 terawatt-hours for 2023. Oil and gas production are both recorded at zero for 2016, indicating no domestic hydrocarbon extraction appears in this series.

Data gaps

  • No SIPRI military expenditure figures are present, so defense spending cannot be benchmarked against the zero-personnel finding above.
  • Oil and gas production data date to 2016, the oldest figures in this bundle, while the rest of the energy series runs to 2023.
  • The governance figures are dated 2025, the capability figures 2022, and the economic figures 2024 and 2026; no single year spans all categories in this bundle.

Sources: World Bank WDI; IMF WEO; V-Dem v15; Correlates of War National Material Capabilities; Our World in Data (Energy)

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
42/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
18/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Capability profile

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (0)

No alliance data loaded.

Neighbours (1)

Disputes (0)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

No militarized disputes recorded (COW MID).

Signals

Airports
4
Ports
3
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
2
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2021): 1 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

100% of imports from Australia — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 13 refugees originated · 0 IDPs · 0 hosted

Compare Vanuatu with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.