America / SLV

El Salvador

El Salvador ranks #123 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (0.4/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 40.2/100 (#41 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-10-22.

Analyst briefing

El Salvador

El Salvador's economy totaled $35.36 billion in 2024, per World Bank WDI figures, with GDP per capita of $5,579.66 and a population of 6,338,193 that same year. Government debt is projected at 84.5% of GDP for 2026, according to IMF WEO data — a notably high debt load relative to the size of the economy and a figure that bears watching as a fiscal pressure point. Foreign reserves stood at $4.56 billion as of 2025, per IMF IFS figures, providing a buffer against external shocks.

Defense spending reached $490 million in 2025, according to SIPRI's Milex database, equivalent to 1.339% of GDP under SIPRI's own GDP accounting for that year — a ratio drawn from SIPRI's parallel GDP series rather than the World Bank total cited above. The Correlates of War National Material Capabilities (COW NMC) dataset recorded 25,000 active military personnel in 2022 and assigned El Salvador a composite index of national capability (CINC) score of 0.0004996084 for that year, a measure COW derives from a composite of demographic, economic, and military inputs rather than military spending alone.

On governance, V-Dem v15's 2025 indicators show an electoral democracy score of 0.321, a liberal democracy score of just 0.09, and a state capacity score of 0.082 — figures that point to pronounced institutional weakness on the liberal-democracy and state-capacity dimensions specifically. Together, the three scores describe a political system where formal electoral competition scores somewhat higher than the liberal safeguards and administrative capacity that typically accompany it.

Energy consumption was modest: primary energy use stood at 0.1626 exajoules in 2023 and electricity generation at 6.46 terawatt-hours in 2025, both per Our World in Data's energy series. No figures on energy imports, generation mix, or consumption growth are present in this bundle, so the trajectory of the sector cannot be assessed from these data points alone.

Data gaps

Oil and gas production figures (both listed as 0.0 terawatt-hours) are dated 2016, per Our World in Data — a decade-old reading that should not be treated as a current statement on domestic hydrocarbon output. The 84.5% debt-to-GDP figure is an IMF WEO projection for 2026, not a historical outturn, and should be read as forward-looking rather than confirmed.

Sources: World Bank WDI, IMF WEO, IMF IFS, SIPRI Milex, Correlates of War National Material Capabilities, V-Dem v15, Our World in Data (Energy)

Written from the sourced figures on this page and checked against them before publication — any figure not present in the data blocks the briefing. Generated 2026-10-06.

What drives the instability score

Forced displacement
76/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
92/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem
Forecast conflict risk
0/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

Energy

Strategic Relationships

Allies (34)

COW alliance ties — includes historical pacts; defense first.

Disputes (19)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
2
Ports
3
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
0
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 0% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 1 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)

80% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 68.2K refugees originated · 71.5K IDPs · 182 hosted

Compare El Salvador with

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.